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This article from
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Climate
The British have traditionally accepted what the elements throw at them with stoic good humour. But here the men at the Jersey Met Office are seen to be looking back before they look ahead.
Most people only worry about the weather when they are planning a picnic, a trip away or a big event like a wedding. But for others, such as engineers, the weather and what it will be doing in the next few months, let alone years, is all-important.
It will help to determine, for example, how strong or weak a building or dam is built ÷ too strong and thousands of pounds could be wasted, too weak and it could collapse in a gale.
Helping to compile the information to make the vital climate predictions to allow these decisions to be made is Jersey's Met Office. As well its daily offerings, the department also puts together 30-year statistics to pick up underlying changes in temperature, rainfall and sunshine. These statistics are updated every ten years and last year's figures, revealed in a recently published report, provided a new set of averages covering 1971 to 2000.
The information was compiled from climatological stations at the Airport and St Louis Observatory, as well as at points dotted around the Island. 2000's figures recorded a very wet autumn and early winter and a record-breaking amount of rainfall towards the end of the year, which continued into 2001.
However, the bigger 30-year picture showed a trend towards slightly less rainfall and sunshine, whereas the temperature is steadily rising, in accordance with the generally accepted view of climate experts that we are now in a period of global warming.
'Our climate varies rather slowly compared to our every-day weather,' explained senior forecasting meteorologist Frank Le Blancq. 'Adding up 30 years' worth of maximum temperatures, rainfall and minimum temperatures shows whether temperatures are increasing or decreasing, whether there is more rainfall and sunshine.'
The 30-year period was chosen by the World Met Organisation, who decided that it was a suitable period from which to gather information. They started the process in 1948 and co-ordinate it in every country to ensure that everyone is using the same method.
Jersey Met collects information every day, tallies it up at the end of the year, and again at the end of a decade, and then works out the statistics. This all goes to the UK Met Office headquarters at Bracknell, and then on to the World Met Organisation.
'With global warming in the news and lots of things going on, statistics like these are important,' said Mr Le Blancq. 'Over the last 100 years or so the figures show a slow increase in temperature ÷ but it is very slow ÷ and that's why we need the 30-year updates. We are dealing with 0.1 or 0.2 of a degree and we need long-term statistics to pick up underlying trends.'
As well as the increasing temperatures, another repercussion of global warming is rising sea levels. Knowing how high they are likely to be over the next few years could affect how high a sea wall is built, for example.
Public Services use rainfall information to determine how big to make drains in different catchment areas - information which in the UK is particularly important in areas where rivers have been known to overflow.
Mr Le Blancq said that the statistics were more important today than they had ever been. 'It is very important today, particularly in terms of building,' he said. 'For instance, is it getting wetter or drier? Is it wise to build up a coastline that is eroding when sea levels are rising? 'People are building things where 50 years ago they would not have thought of it because of economics and pressures on land.'
This article updated: 2002/07/02 09:08:22
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| ......Daily Ditons...... |
Les louanges de se-meme et d’sa methe ne valent rein du tout.
Self-praise is no recommendation.
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